Money Moves
Longtime Malibu Local and Investment Advisor Jeff Runyan’s 2022 Financial Forecast
There are many areas to be excited about for investment in the year(s) ahead, including the growth in infrastructure in the United States, continued demand in electric and autonomous vehicles, augmented reality with VR headsets (ask your kids or grandkids), continued innovation making work from home a more seamless experience for employees and employers, as well as significant advancements in health and medical care.
Of course, there are apparent concerns always on my radar. For example, last year, more than 50 companies went public, yet an overwhelming number of them are 20-50% lower in price now than their peak price during this past year. Companies like RobinHood, the online stock trading platform; Coinbase, a platform to trade digital currencies; Ziprecruiter, the job posting, and candidate search site; Warby Parker, the eye frame manufacturer; and Roblox, the video game developer, are such examples. Equally telling, “insiders” like Elon Musk of Tesla, Jeff Bezos of Amazon, and Satya Nadella of Microsoft have sold record levels of company stock in the recent year. In fact, “insider selling” by execs across the S&P 500 hit $63 billion in shares and was up 50% from 2020.
Last year, eyeglass manufacturer Warby Parker was one of multiple companies that went public and saw a significant drop since their peak price.
That, along with the record monetary stimulus received in many households, accompanied by continued low-interest rates, encouraged an environment where prices of assets escalated dramatically (i.e., How much is your house worth? What was it worth two years ago?). That brings us to the point where we are now: many financiers and experts conclude “market valuations are rich or extended.” When you hear language like “rich” and “extended,” be reminded, they are euphemisms highlighting exaggerated market values of specific companies or a value beyond what the underlying company is intrinsically worth.
Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos were among those who sold a record levels of company stock in the last year. Photo collage: Financial Times
What’s also on my mind for the year ahead: inflation, which erodes real return, being vigilant and protective of staying true to your comfort level with acceptance of market risk, and keeping the specific goals you have in mind for 2022 aligned with your investment portfolio. In the last year, I’ve seen clients pay off mortgages, fund college tuitions, buy a second/third home, purchase an apartment building, take a company public by ringing the bell at the New York Stock Exchange (where he invited me to join him on the trading floor) and beyond. I’m excited for Runyan Capital to join you on your journey toward your next goals. And let it be clear, I thank you for choosing me and my team to serve you, and I appreciate the continued confidence that you have placed in us to manage your wealth. I promise to always work extraordinarily hard to make sure your every request is met promptly, so that you continue to enjoy an elevated wealth management experience.
Continued low-interest rates where home prices escalated exponentially in 2021. Some areas saw property values double. Expect interest rates to rise in 2022. Photo of the Malibu coast by: Felipe Dornellas
Sources: Axios: Deere Unveils Autonomous Tractor to Transform Agriculture / Morning Brew: Company Insiders Go On Stock Selling Spree in 2021 per WSJ /Wall Street Journal: IPO’s Had a Record 2021. Now They are Selling Off Like Crazy / Motley Fool: Charlie Munger Has a Warning for Investors
JEFF M. RUNYAN | Wealth & Investment Advisor